Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-12 1.594721 2.096998 2.774317 3.778264 5.271029 7.481342e+00 1.114976e+01
2025-01-19 0.961141 1.419576 2.139763 3.418145 5.785196 1.034894e+01 2.095633e+01
2025-01-26 0.680501 1.108133 1.875105 3.483548 7.190844 1.674606e+01 5.070574e+01
2025-02-02 0.520617 0.925158 1.745029 3.769370 9.652778 3.101759e+01 1.695277e+02
2025-02-09 0.402710 0.770435 1.599178 3.976850 12.681708 5.922738e+01 7.832356e+02
2025-02-16 0.309841 0.628962 1.413870 3.978274 15.628334 1.099526e+02 5.780136e+03
2025-02-23 0.236715 0.502853 1.203773 3.749882 17.719705 1.894893e+02 1.095518e+05
2025-03-02 0.179990 0.395219 0.991490 3.340489 18.361795 2.905931e+02 9.933022e+07
2025-03-09 0.152023 0.349256 0.935473 3.530737 24.531424 8.004837e+02 NaN
2025-03-16 0.128435 0.306496 0.868528 3.628788 31.638613 2.523884e+03 NaN
2025-03-23 0.112500 0.279375 0.840968 3.935074 45.176555 1.646530e+04 NaN
2025-03-30 0.098710 0.253786 0.806178 4.189610 63.578374 3.280353e+05 NaN
2025-04-06 0.083917 0.221088 0.729924 4.099667 77.817048 1.107580e+08 NaN
2025-04-13 0.070126 0.187558 0.634303 3.743535 82.672658 NaN NaN
2025-04-20 0.061990 0.170033 0.598972 3.852341 112.652316 NaN NaN
2025-04-27 0.056415 0.159349 0.589108 4.209089 179.888136 NaN NaN
2025-05-04 0.051110 0.148004 0.570416 4.476161 279.296013 NaN NaN
2025-05-11 0.045678 0.134654 0.534897 4.501968 383.942923 NaN NaN
2025-05-18 0.040225 0.119828 0.484604 4.254762 444.519775 NaN NaN
2025-05-25 0.034957 0.104513 0.425329 3.790557 426.710585 NaN NaN
2025-06-01 0.032374 0.098723 0.415737 4.024921 706.590921 NaN NaN
2025-06-08 0.029815 0.092379 0.400020 4.150304 1107.072248 NaN NaN
2025-06-15 0.028032 0.088627 0.397772 4.521606 2278.303942 NaN NaN